2002 Texas Districts by Predicted Party Majority
The map above shows the original 2002 Texas districts with
the same analysis of the predicted voter outcome as above. The
original districts, while still majority republican, more closely
represent the results of the 2002 election.
One potential problem with the spatial analysis used to
create these maps is the kernal density estimation used to spread the
votes out from single points to areas to cover the new districts.
If the area radius used to spread out the votes is too large,
small but densely populated discrict votes could overwhelm the actual
numbers found in less populated larger districts. Also, over
time, populations move into different areas, changing the makeup of
voters in the district.
Non technical probelms include the fact that votes in
elections are influenced by issues and individuals that change from
election to election.